Pokémon card prices go down after release, and for longer than a few weeks: in 2026, the median chase card of a new English set sold at 82% of its release-week price a month later and at 65% three months later. We followed ten chase cards from each of four sets, from Perfect Order (March 27, 2026) to 30th Celebration (September 16, 2026), through 43,781 real completed sales. From October 25 to November 7, 2026, none of the 39 cards with recorded sales traded above its release-week price, and 25 were below half of it.
Each colored line is one set: for each of its chase cards, the median sale of the week divided by its release-week median, then the median across the cards that sold at least twice that week. 100% is the release-week price. Hover a week to read every set, switch to the table, or download the chart as an image: it may be reused with a link to this page.
Key findings
- One month after release, the median chase card sold at 82% of its release-week price. By set, week 4 ranged from 52% for 30th Celebration to 94% for Perfect Order.
- Three months after release, the median chase card was at 65%, across the 29 cards of the three sets old enough.
- Six months after release, Perfect Order, the only set that old, was at 54% in week 24.
- No set came back. After release week, no set's line went above its release-week level. In the three sets with more than three months of sales, the cheapest week through November 7, 2026 is one of the latest: week 30 for Perfect Order, 23 for Chaos Rising and 15 for Pitch Black.
- In 30th Celebration, the rarest cards held best. Its three Mew RGB cards sold at 87% to 97% of their release-week price from October 25 to November 7, the set's seven other chase cards at 33% to 49%. In the other sets, rarity did not protect a card: the Mega Hyper Rares of Perfect Order and Chaos Rising kept 48% and 33%.
- The steepest fall was Froakie 88, an illustration rare from Chaos Rising: $24.99 in release week, $5.67 from October 25 to November 7, 23% of it.
How much do Pokémon card prices drop after release?
| Set (release) | Week 1 | Week 4 | Week 12 | Week 24 | Latest week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect Order (Mar 27) | 98% | 94% | 84% | 54% | 48% (week 31) |
| Chaos Rising (May 22) | 92% | 74% | 49% | not yet | 32% (week 23) |
| Pitch Black (Jul 17) | 100% | 88% | 62% | not yet | 58% (week 15) |
| 30th Celebration (Sep 16) | 88% | 52% | not yet | not yet | 48% (week 6) |
Share of the release-week price, median of each set's chase cards, with each set's 2026 release date. Week 0 is release day and the six days after it, so week 4 starts 28 days after release. Sales through November 7, 2026.
Every set went the same way, at different speeds. Perfect Order stayed within 10% of its release-week prices for its first two months, then fell from 84% to 66% between weeks 12 and 16. Pitch Black also started high, at 88% in week 4, then slid to 62% by week 12. 30th Celebration fell fastest, to 52% in four weeks, and Chaos Rising fell below half its release-week prices in week 12.
Is it better to buy Pokémon cards at release or to wait?
For the singles in this study, waiting paid. Release week was the most expensive week for the typical chase card of all four sets. In the three sets with at least twelve weeks of sales, chase cards were cheaper in week 12 than in week 4, and Perfect Order was cheaper again in week 24. The low did not come after four to six weeks: it came months later.
Four limits. The study covers raw English cards, not sealed products or graded slabs. It covers four sets of a single year. The cards were picked for their high release-week price, which slightly favors a fall. And a median hides cards that went the other way for a while: Meowth ex 121 from Perfect Order sold for $145 in release week and $170 three months later, before falling to $82.50.
Perfect Order prices after release
Perfect Order held its prices longest of the four sets. Mega Zygarde ex 124, its Mega Hyper Rare, still sold for $160 three months after release, against $189 in release week. The slide came later: from October 25 to November 7 its ten chase cards sold at 32% to 67% of their release-week price.
| Card | Release week | 1 month later | 3 months later | Oct 25 to Nov 7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mega Zygarde ex 124, Mega Hyper Rare | $189 (32 sales) | $168 | $160 | $90 | −52% |
 Meowth ex 121, SIR | $145 (58 sales) | $161 | $170 | $82.50 | −43% |
 Mega Zygarde ex 120, SIR | $125 (37 sales) | $99.99 | $72 | $40 | −68% |
 Rosa's Encouragement 123, SIR | $95.99 (95 sales) | $77.50 | $67.90 | $35 | −63% |
 Mega Clefable ex 119, SIR | $76.79 (26 sales) | $70 | $65 | $37 | −52% |
 Mega Starmie ex 118, SIR | $76.20 (39 sales) | $75 | $60 | $30 | −61% |
 Clefairy 94, IR | $35 (102 sales) | $33.99 | $28.99 | $14.15 | −60% |
 Jacinthe 122, SIR | $29.99 (71 sales) | $29.99 | $29.73 | $19.99 | −33% |
 Meowth ex 107, Ultra Rare | $19.99 (42 sales) | $19.99 | $17.50 | $10.97 | −45% |
 Poké Pad 113, Ultra Rare | $17.99 (19 sales) | $17 | $13.99 | $8.49 (2 sales) | −53% |
Every card of the set with its price: the Perfect Order price list.
Chaos Rising prices after release
Of the three older sets, Chaos Rising lost the most in three months: in week 12 its chase cards sold at 49% of their release-week prices. Its two Mega Greninja ex, the special illustration rare 116 and the Mega Hyper Rare 122, sold for $451 and $330 in release week and for $120 and $110 from October 25 to November 7. The three illustration rares at the bottom of its top ten, Froakie, Frogadier and Xerneas, kept less than 30% of their release-week price.
| Card | Release week | 1 month later | 3 months later | Oct 25 to Nov 7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mega Greninja ex 116, SIR | $451 (3 sales) | $325 | $201 | $120 | −73% |
 Mega Greninja ex 122, Mega Hyper Rare | $330 (82 sales) | $255 | $178 | $110 | −67% |
 Cinccino ex 119, SIR | $90 (54 sales) | $77 | $59 | $33.63 | −63% |
 Mega Dragalge ex 118, SIR | $78.38 (54 sales) | $53 | $36 | $23.99 | −69% |
 Mega Floette ex 117, SIR | $60.99 (43 sales) | $45 | $31 | $19.99 | −67% |
 AZ's Tranquility 120, SIR | $44.99 (85 sales) | $35 | $24.99 | $19.99 | −56% |
 Roxie's Performance 121, SIR | $38.50 (92 sales) | $29.99 | $20 | $16 | −58% |
 Froakie 88, IR | $24.99 (84 sales) | $16 | $10.49 | $5.67 | −77% |
 Frogadier 89, IR | $20 (49 sales) | $14.99 | $8 | $4.81 | −76% |
 Xerneas 91, IR | $19.99 (42 sales) | $15 | $9.49 | $5.70 | −71% |
Every card of the set with its price: the Chaos Rising price list. The most valuable cards and their price history: Chaos Rising chase cards.
Pitch Black prices after release
Pitch Black started high, then slid: 88% of its release-week prices in week 4, 62% in week 12 and 58% in week 15. Mega Darkrai ex 116 went from $280 in release week to $151 from October 25 to November 7. The set's Mega Hyper Rare, Mega Darkrai ex 120, is not in the table: only two of its release-week sales were recorded.
| Card | Release week | 1 month later | 3 months later | Oct 25 to Nov 7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mega Darkrai ex 116, SIR | $280 (15 sales) | $235 | $158 | $151 | −46% |
 Morpeko ex 117, SIR | $100 (3 sales) | $94.50 | $65 | $59.50 | −40% |
 Mega Zeraora ex 114, SIR | $60 (3 sales) | $54.99 | $39.99 | $32.99 | −45% |
 Mega Chandelure ex 115, SIR | $49.99 (19 sales) | $42 | $30.98 | $33.40 | −33% |
 Gwynn 119, SIR | $35 (3 sales) | $32.50 | $24.95 | $24 | −31% |
 Gladion's Final Battle 118, SIR | $28.97 (14 sales) | $25.99 | $20 | $19.99 | −31% |
 Slowbro 90, IR | $20 (20 sales) | $15.50 | $8 | $6.88 | −66% |
 Mega Darkrai ex 101, Ultra Rare | $14.99 (3 sales) | $12.81 | $7.59 | $7.50 | −50% |
 Mega Chandelure ex 99, Ultra Rare | $9.09 (10 sales) | $9.70 | $6.65 | $6.49 | −29% |
 Dhelmise 91, IR | $8 (15 sales) | $4.99 | no recorded sale | no recorded sale |
Every card of the set with its price: the Pitch Black price list. The most valuable cards and their price history: Pitch Black chase cards.
30th Celebration prices after release
30th Celebration had the steepest first month of the four sets, and the clearest split. The three Mew RGB cards, at $3,625 to $4,000 in release week, held 87% to 97% of that price from October 25 to November 7. The seven others, Mew ex, Gengar ex, Pikachu ex and Mewtwo ex in special illustration rare or futuristic rare, kept 39% to 54% of their release-week price after a month: Mew ex 152 went from $180 to $89.99.
| Card | Release week | 1 month later | 3 months later | Oct 25 to Nov 7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mew R/RGB, RGB Rare | $4,000 (19 sales) | $4,348 | not yet | $3,800 | −5% |
 Mew B/RGB, RGB Rare | $3,900 (40 sales) | $4,100 | not yet | $3,800 | −3% |
 Mew G/RGB, RGB Rare | $3,625 (20 sales) | $3,450 | not yet | $3,138 | −13% |
 Mew ex 152, SIR | $180 (788 sales) | $89.99 | not yet | $79.99 | −56% |
 Mew ex 158, Futuristic Rare | $145 (564 sales) | $57 | not yet | $47.63 | −67% |
 Gengar ex 154, SIR | $140 (746 sales) | $75 | not yet | $69 | −51% |
 Pikachu ex 150, SIR | $115 (554 sales) | $60 | not yet | $54.99 | −52% |
 Mewtwo ex 151, SIR | $110 (541 sales) | $52.77 | not yet | $44.99 | −59% |
 Mewtwo ex 157, Futuristic Rare | $100 (348 sales) | $44.99 | not yet | $37.79 | −62% |
 Pikachu ex 149, SIR | $95 (458 sales) | $50 | not yet | $45 | −53% |
Every card of the set with its price: the 30th Celebration price list. The most valuable cards and their price history: 30th Celebration chase cards.
How we measured
- Sales: real completed sales in US dollars of raw (ungraded) English cards, as recorded in our database through November 7, 2026. Graded cards and sales flagged as lots or wrong matches are left out.
- Sets: Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, Pitch Black and 30th Celebration. Ascended Heroes (January 30, 2026) is left out: our records of its first weeks were collected afterwards and are incomplete, so its release-week prices cannot be measured.
- Chase cards: the ten cards with the highest median sale in release week, among the cards with at least three recorded sales that week. Pitch Black's Mega Hyper Rare has 2 and is not among them.
- Weeks: week 0 is release day and the six days after it; week 1 starts on day 7.
- A set's line: each card's median sale of the week divided by its release-week median, then the median of those ratios over the cards with two or more sales that week. A week is drawn when at least six of the ten cards have that many.
- Card tables: "1 month later" is the median of the sales of weeks 3 to 5, "3 months later" of weeks 11 to 13. A price that rests on fewer than five sales shows its count.
- Median chase card: the median, over the cards, of each card's price one month (or three months) later divided by its release-week price: 40 cards at one month, 29 at three months.
FAQ
Do Pokémon card prices go down after release?
For the chase cards of 2026's English sets, yes: the median chase card lost 18% of its release-week price within a month and 35% within three months. None of the four sets got back above its release-week level by November 7, 2026.
How long do Pokémon card prices keep dropping after release?
In this study, for months. Perfect Order's cheapest week through November 7, 2026 was its 30th, in late October: its chase cards were still sliding nearly seven months after release.
When is the best time to buy singles from a new Pokémon set?
Not release week, on this data: it was the most expensive week for the typical chase card of all four sets. Three months later the median chase card cost 35% less.
Which Pokémon cards held their value best after release?
In 30th Celebration, the rarest pulls: its three Mew RGB cards kept 87% to 97% of their release-week price, when the set's other chase cards kept 33% to 49%. In the other sets, rarity did not protect a card: the Mega Hyper Rares of Perfect Order and Chaos Rising kept 48% and 33%.
Does this apply to sealed products and graded cards?
No. This study measures raw single cards only. Sealed boxes and graded slabs are separate markets that it does not cover.
